The Rapid Emergency Planning for the bradyseism in the Phlegraean Fields

The intervention area was identified based on knowledge of the most significant phenomena that characterize the bradyseismic crisis: ground deformations and seismicity. Therefore, to establish its perimeter, the Department has launched, in collaboration with the Campania Region, an analysis and in-depth study with the Centers of Expertise operating in the Phlegraean area (INGV-OV, CNR-IREA, PLINIVS). Complementing the data on seismicity and ground deformation, additional cognitive elements were provided regarding the shake maps produced during the last seismic events, and information on the seismic vulnerability studies of buildings, primarily houses or services, already carried out by the Centers of Expertise was summarized.
The National Commission for the Forecasting and Prevention of Major Risks has expressed a positive opinion on the identified intervention area. 

The intervention area is characterized by uplifts equal to or greater than 10 cm since 2015 (corresponding to about 20 cm since 2006) and includes part of the municipalities of Pozzuoli, Bacoli, and Naples (Bagnoli and part of the municipalities of Soccavo/Pianura and Posillipo). It covers a total population of 84,961 and a total (estimated) number of residential buildings of 15,516 distributed by the municipality. 

A "restricted" intervention area has been identified inside the intervention area, where the most significant effects could occur on a widespread basis if the bradyseism phenomenon were to continue and/or intensify. This zone is characterized by uplifts equal to or greater than 30 cm since 2015 (about 45 cm since 2006) and includes parts of Pozzuoli and Naples (Bagnoli district) municipalities. It covers a total population of 33,653 people and a total (estimated) number of residential buildings of 6,929, distributed by the municipality.

Because of the unpredictable characteristics that typify bradyseism-related phenomena, differently from the Planning for volcanic risk in the Phlegraean Fields, the operational strategy of the Rapid Planning cannot be based on varying alert levels and operational phases defined beforehand. Therefore, the civil protection response is based on three different operational scenarios defined based on the different effects that the seismic-deformation phenomenon produces on buildings and infrastructure.

In the first operational scenario, earthquake shakes produce limited and localized damage in small portions of the territory of the intervention area. The response, therefore, consists of punctual restoration and safety actions or the interdiction of the few damaged buildings and infrastructure. This response is executed at the local and regional levels in conjunction with the national level. 

In the second operational scenario, earthquake shakes cause more severe damage in more significant portions of the territory and many structures and infrastructure in the intervention area. The response then consists of rapid verification of damage to buildings and infrastructure, potential actions to remove the danger to public and private safety, restoration of impacted buildings and infrastructure, and rescue and assistance operations for the population. Based on the evaluations of the effects on structures and infrastructure, the involvement at the national level is determined through the coordination of the Civil Protection Operational Committee and the possible activation of the Command and Control Directorate - DiComaC.

In the third operational scenario, deformations undergo a significant increase in acceleration and seismicity increases in frequency and energy in the territory of the restricted intervention area, resulting in significant structural damage to buildings and infrastructure and critical issues such that essential services for citizens are no longer effectively guaranteed. Based on assessments of the effects on structures and infrastructure, the Civil Protection Department, in conjunction with the Region of Campania and the mayors of the involved municipalities, supports the operational response implemented by the territorial level, including any partial or total evacuation of the population. The operational response results in the involvement of the national level through the coordination of the Civil Protection Operational Committee and the following activation of the Command and Control Directorate - DiComaC.

The Rapid Planning foresees an intervention model outlining the organizational aspects, coordination structures, and procedures for safeguarding the at-risk population.

According to the three operational scenarios that the Planning identifies, the different actors involved (Municipalities, Campania Region, Metropolitan City and Prefecture of Naples, Civil Protection Department) must perform specific actions to assist the population and, if necessary, its eventual evacuation.
At the municipal level, civil protection activities are coordinated by the Municipal Operations Centers (COC), which are activated in case of emergency in the municipalities of Bacoli, Pozzuoli, and Naples. At the provincial level, at the Prefecture-UTG of Naples, the Relief Coordination Centre (CCS) is activated, directing emergency services in coordination with the Unified Regional Operations Room (SORU), responsible for managing regional resources.
The Civil Protection Department, based on the evaluations made within the Operational Committee and in conjunction with the Campania Region, may activate the Command and Control Directorate - DiComaC, which serves as the national coordination structure and operates close to the site of the emergency.