Timeline

The Ingv reports that a seismic swarm has been occurring in the Phlegraean Fields area since the first hours of September 26, 2023. At 3:35 a.m., an earthquake of magnitude 4.2 is recorded. The local population feels the event, but it doesn't result in any damage.

Since 10:08 p.m. on October 2, Ingv has been detecting a seismic swarm in the Phlegraean Fields region, with the most significant event measuring a magnitude of 4.0 and felt by the community. No damage is reported.

Upon the Department of Civil Protection's request, the Major Risks Commission gathers for an update on the volcanic activity status and to discusss ways to enhance monitoring systems. The yellow alert level for the Phlegraean Fields is confirmed. Still,  due to the complex nature of the issue and the potential evolution of the volcano's dynamics, the Commission emphasizes the urgent need for more in-depth analysis.

A seminar addressed to an audience of about 200 geologists occurs at the "Porta del Parco" Auditorium in Naples. The objective is to update professionals on the technical and scientific issues regarding the current state of the Phlegraean caldera, discuss the monitoring activities of the Centres of Competence, national and regional civil protection planning, and current or future actions in the area.

The government approves Decree-Law No. 140 to address the ongoing bradyseism crisis in the Phlegraean Fields area. The decree outlines structural and non-structural preventive measures that the Civil Protection System will take to manage the complex risk situation effectively.

Upon request of the Department of Civil Protection, the Major Risks Commission meets for further technical and scientific analysis of the ongoing phenomena occurring in the Phlegraean Fields area. The meeting considers the opinions of several Italian and foreign experts with specific experience in the Phlegraean Fields.

The Major Risks Commission-Seismic Risk Sector and Volcanic Risk Sector is called to express an opinion on the proposal prepared by the Civil Protection Department in agreement with the Campania Region, INGV, and the Centers of Competence CNR-IREA and PLINIVS. This proposal aims to identify the intervention area specified in Article 2, paragraph 2 of DL 140/2023 and the development of rapid emergency planning as outlined in Article 4 of DL 140. The Major Risks Commission expresses a favorable opinion regarding the proposed perimeter of the intervention area in accordance with DL 140/2023.

By resolutions of the Mayor of the Metropolitan City of Naples, dated November 17, 2023, and February 1, 2024, the plan regarding the needs of the municipalities of Bacoli, Naples, and Pozzuoli, as foreseen in Article 6 of Decree-Law 140/2023, is approved. The plan includes the recruitment of personnel to carry out activities at municipal facilities, the procurement of materials, means, and tools to guarantee the effectiveness of these activities, and the establishment of temporary areas and facilities for the possible sheltering of the population.

As part of the urgent measures, Article 3 of Decree-Law No. 140/2023  foresees the production of a Communication Plan to inform the public about risks, civil protection plans, and appropriate actions to be taken in affected areas, with particular attention to people with disabilities. The Campania Region coordinates the plan in conjunction with the Department and the Centers of Expertise.

Decree-Law No. 140/2023 "Urgent measures for the prevention of seismic risk related to the bradyseism phenomenon in the Phlegraean Fields area" becomes Law No. 183.

Article 4 of Decree-Law No. 140 foresees this planning, which results from the need to define a specific strategy and operational procedures to address the effects and potential consequences of bradyseism. The plan is drafted by the Department of Civil Protection in conjunction with the Campania Region, the Prefecture—UTG of Naples, and the relevant local authorities and administrations. The plan considers the risk knowledge developed by the Centers of Expertise.

The Major Risks Commission appreciates INGV's efforts to strengthen and implement the monitoring system. According to the data analysis conducted by the Centers of Expertise, the bradyseism phenomenon is still active despite the slowdown observed in recent months. The yellow alert level remains valid.

A section about the bradyseism phenomenon in the Phlegraean area and the ongoing crisis is published on the websites of the Civil Protection Department and the Campania Region, as per the Communication Plan. The texts are written jointly, with contributions from Ingv's Vesuvius Observatory and the PLINIVS Study Centre.

In accordance with Article 5 of Decree-Law No. 140, the Campania Region, in collaboration with the affected municipalities, is responsible for coordinating activities to assess and identify critical issues that need to be addressed to ensure the proper functioning of transportation infrastructure, essential services, and to support the updating of planning for bradyseism. The "Urgent measures to verify the functionality of transportation infrastructure and other essential services" are approved by Resolution No. 7 of the Regional Council of January 10, 2024.

The Department coordinates an extraordinary plan for vulnerability analysis of building heritage and local risk in built-up areas through a new seismic microzonation study approved by the Decree of the Minister for Civil Protection and Sea Policies in consultation with the Minister of the Economy and Finance. The activities described in the Plan, provided for in Article 2 of Decree-Law No. 140, involve the "intervention area."

The Prefecture in Naples hosts a meeting with the Minister for Civil Protection and Sea Policies to discuss the status of the implementation of Decree-Law 140/2023. The Civil Protection Department, Campania Region, Ingv Vesuvius Observatory, Municipality of Naples, Metropolitan City of Naples and the municipalities of Bacoli and Pozzuoli attend the meeting.

The Major Risks Commission meets for a new session on the ongoing phenomena in the Phlegraean Fields area. Experts from the international scientific community in volcanology, with specific experience in phreatic eruptions, attend the meeting for a detailed discussion.

In Naples, at Palazzo Armieri, the Campania Region, Civil Protection Department, and INGV organize a training course for the Association of Journalists of Campania as part of the activities planned in the Communication Plan, Art.3 of Decree-Law No. 140. The course seeks to promote correct and consistent information to the public on the volcanic risk and bradyseism phenomenon affecting the Phlegraean area and civil protection planning activities.

At the request of the Civil Protection Department, the National Commission for the Forecasting and Prevention of Major Risks-Volcanic Risk Sector held a meeting. During this session, representatives from INGV-OV and CNR-IREA provided updates on the status of activities and monitoring systems in the Phlegraean Fields. Additionally, the PLINIVS Study Center presented information related to the activities conducted by Decree Law 140/2023. In light of the ongoing bradyseismic crisis, the Major Risks Commission emphasized the importance of consolidating data among monitoring entities and expressed its readiness to facilitate timely evaluations.

Ordinance No. 1081 sets out the rules for conducting inspections to assess the seismic vulnerability of private buildings as part of the Extraordinary Plan (Art. 2 of DL 140/2023). This regulation outlines the procedures for collecting data on building conditions and specifies the technicians' employment rules. The Civil Protection Department coordinates these activities with the Campania Region and the municipalities involved.

Start of training activities for civil protection volunteers of the Campania Region, foreseen within the framework of the Communication Plan, art.3 of DL 140. The two-day course covers topics related to volcanic risk, the bradyseism phenomenon, emergency planning activities, and communication activities to the population.

Teams of technicians start assessment activities on private residential buildings located in the areas of Pozzuoli, Bacoli, and Naples municipalities that are most affected by bradyseism ("intervention area"). At the end of this first phase of inspections, a summary map identifying the most vulnerable areas is produced.

Department of Civil Protection and Campania Region meet with the Prefecture of Naples and municipalities in the Phlegraean red zone to present the schedule of exercises foreseen by Art. 4 of Decree-Law 140/2023. These exercises, scheduled for April, May, and October 2024, are designed to test planning methods concerning the bradyseism phenomenon and volcanic risk in the Phlegraean Fields.

Start of training courses at the Campania Region Auditorium in Naples on the bradyseism phenomenon and volcanic risk in the Phlegraean Fields for public officials engaged in civil protection activities and members of educational institutions in the area. These courses aim to encourage among public officials the dissemination of knowledge of volcanic and the bradyseism phenomena affecting the area and the resulting Civil Protection planning.

The Municipality of Pozzuoli, Campania Region, and the Civil Protection Department jointly hold the meeting to inform citizens of the ongoing phenomenon of bradyseism in the Phlegraean Fields. The event, which takes place at the Pozzuoli Municipal Operations Center (Centro Operativo Comunale—COC), is part of the Communication Plan foreseen by Art. 3 of DL 140/2023. The meeting aims to answer the most frequently asked questions of citizens.

Launch of the first of three exercises planned for 2024 in the Phlegraean area, organized by the Civil Protection Department in coordination with the Campania Region, with the involvement of the Metropolitan City and Prefecture-UGT of Naples and the municipalities affected. In addition to activating rooms and coordination centers, the exercise includes evacuating four school buildings in Naples, Bacoli, and Pozzuoli municipalities.

The meeting, organized by the Municipality of Bacoli, the Campania Region, and the Civil Protection Department, aims to inform citizens about the ongoing phenomenon of bradyseism in the Phlegraean Fields. The initiative is part of the Communication Plan foreseen by Art. 3 of DL 140/2023. During the meeting, officials address frequently asked questions from citizens.

The City of Naples, the Campania Region, and the Department are holding a meeting to inform the public about the ongoing bradyseism crisis. During the meeting at the Municipality X of Naples, citizens can ask institutional representatives questions, addressing both scientific matters and the broader response of the civil protection system.

"La virgola" is the second issue of the comic strip "L'attimo decisivo" focusing on the ongoing bradyseismic crisis and volcanic risk in the Phlegraean Fields area. A total of 40,000 copies are distributed to about 100 secondary schools in municipalities of the red zone. "L'attimo decisivo" is part of the I don't take risks project, promoted by the Minister for Civil Protection and Sea Policies in partnership with the Ministry of Education and Merit. The second issue is produced by the Department of Civil Protection, the Civil Protection of the Campania Region, and the INGV-Vesuvius Observatory as part of the Communication Plan.

Following the magnitude 4.4 earthquake recorded at 8:10 p.m., the Civil Protection Department activates the Crisis Unit in connection with the municipalities of Naples, Pozzuoli, and Bacoli, the Prefecture of Naples, the Campania Region, the National Operations Centre, and the Regional Office of the National Fire and Rescue Service. Reception areas are set up for the population, civil protection volunteers are activated, and traffic monitoring is strengthened. Assessments are carried out on buildings and underground utility networks. All coordination centers are activated and connected. 

During the meeting, the Major Risks Commission recommends paying close attention to volcanic monitoring activities and implementing risk prevention and mitigation measures. While there is no evidence to suggest magma migration towards more superficial levels, analysis of multi-parameter data indicates the continued intensification of the phenomenon of bradyseism. Therefore, the intensification of the current crisis requires regular monitoring of the state of the volcano. The Commission also notes that the seismic activity may persist or increase in the coming weeks. The yellow alert level remains in effect.

The National Commission for the Forecasting and Prevention of Major Risks meets and finds that the volcano's status is substantially unchanged from its meeting on May 22. Therefore, the alert level remains 'yellow.'

During the meeting, which is also attended by international experts, the accuracy of short-term eruption forecasts is also explored. This is done by analyzing recent volcanic crises as a case study, comparing methods and timing, examining the use of alert levels for forecasting and operational purposes in different countries, and evaluating the existing links between scientific analysis and forecasting.

The case study confirms that only some volcanic crises examined culminated in eruptive activity. In most cases, the volcanic reactivation process starts with seismic and ground deformation phenomena, as well as changes in geochemical parameters, over extended periods (months to years). This first phase is followed by a second one of rapid pre-eruptive acceleration, in which the geochemical, seismic, and deformation signals experience a further increase. This pre-eruptive phase develops over short periods, generally in hours or days.

In light of these critical issues, the Commission emphasizes the importance of promptly updating the alert levels of the Emergency Plans for the Phlegraean Fields to ensure that the operational indications align with the current state of scientific knowledge.

The Civil Protection Department acknowledges the existing evidence and that planning is a dynamic process requiring constant updating. It values the scientific support offered by the Commission for revising this scheme and will implement necessary activities to adapt alert levels for the Phlegraean Fields, along with subsequent operational actions.

The Minister for Civil Protection and Sea Policies issues a decree declaring a state of mobilization for the National Service to support the Campania Region. This measure aims to provide full assistance and rescue to the people affected by the earthquake on May 20. It also involves mobilizing mobile columns from other regions and autonomous provinces, volunteers, and operational structures.

After the technical meetings on May 30 at the Municipal Operational Centres (COC) of Pozzuoli, Bacoli, and Naples, and the Relief Coordination Centre (CCS) of Naples, a plenary meeting takes place on May 31 at the Pozzuoli COC. During this meeting, the components and operational structures of the civil protection system discuss the strengths and weaknesses that emerged from their detailed analysis of the activities performed. The analysis covered various civil protection activities, including municipal planning and organization of COC and CCS, assistance to the population, procedures for inspecting private and public buildings (especially schools), information to the population, data management, traffic and escape routes, and health aspects with special attention to people with disabilities.

In response to the state of mobilization declared on May 30, the Campania Region, along with the municipalities of Pozzuoli, Bacoli, and Naples, in collaboration with the Department of Civil Protection and the Prefecture of Naples, provide economic support to households affected by the magnitude 4.4 earthquake that occurred on May 20. This support is available to households with properties that have been damaged in whole or in part or have been evacuated by orders of the relevant authorities. Citizens can submit applications to their municipalities, which verify applicants' requirements and provide contributions.

On June 25 and 26, the second exercise takes place in the Phlegraean Fields area to test the operational procedures defined by Rapid Emergency Planning in the area affected by bradyseism. The exercise involves testing the functionality of some of the waiting areas and the procedures for relocating part of the population. Internal procedures, local coordination centers, and operational structures are tested during the exercise. In addition, it involves the convocation of the Operational Committee of the Civil Protection in Rome.

The video "Volcanic eruptions and bradyseism. The civil protection response", released during the second exercise on the Rapid Emergency Planning for the bradyseismic area, is the product of collaboration between Civil Protection Department, Civil Protection of the Campania Region, and Ingv's Vesuvius Observatory. The short video offers insight into volcanic risk in the Phlegraean Fields and the ongoing bradyseismic crisis since 2005 in the Phlegraean area.

The Minister for Civil Protection and Sea Policies issues a decree declaring the end of the state of mobilization of the National Civil Protection Service. This state was declared on May 30 to support and assist the Campania Region after the May 20 earthquake.

By Article 2 of Decree-Law No. 91/2024, upon the proposal of the Minister for Civil Protection and Sea Policies, Undersecretary of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers Alfredo Mantovano signs the Decree of the President of the Council of Ministers appointing engineer Fulvio Maria Soccodato as Extraordinary commissioner for the implementation of public interventions in the Phlegraean Fields area, with a focus on seismic retrofitting of public buildings and ensuring the functionality of infrastructures.

The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) reports an ongoing seismic swarm in the Phlegraean Fields area since 1:44 p.m. The most significant event, a magnitude 4.0 earthquake, occurs at 1:46 p.m. and is felt by the population.

Upon request of the Civil Protection Department, the Major Risks Commission convenes. The geophysical and geochemical data reported are consistent with the observed dynamics of the volcano in recent times. The Commission acknowledges the implementation of the monitoring system by the INGV-National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and recommends continuing modeling studies and defining possible eruptive scenarios. The yellow alert level is confirmed.

Decree-Law No. 76 of June 11, 2024, "Urgent provisions for post-disaster reconstruction, civil protection interventions and the holding of major international events," is converted into Law No. 111/2024, on urgent provisions for post-disaster reconstruction, civil protection interventions and the holding of major international events.

From October 9 to 12" 2024, "Exe Flegrei 2024" takes place in Campania. This exercise forms part of a broader program outlined in Decree-Law 140/2023, which established three exercises for the year 2024. On April 22, and June 25 and 26, there were tests for rapid emergency planning related to the bradyseismic phenomenon. "Exe Flegrei 2024" aims to assess national planning for volcanic risk.